NBA Playoffs 2013, Round 3

I called 3 series correctly in Round 2, 2 in the correct number of games. That makes me 9 for 12 on series winners, and calling 4 of those in the right number of games. Onto Round 3.

Round 3
Eastern Conference
#1 Miami Heat against #3 Indiana Pacers. This should be fairly easy. Heat 4-1.

Western Conference
#2 San Antonio Spurs against #5 Memphis Grizzlies. This should be a great series. I could really see the Grizzlies' size dominating and taking them to the finals. I also could see the Spurs just carve them up with great execution. I'm leaning towards the latter. Spurs 4-3.

NBA Finals
Heat with home-court against the Spurs. Still think the same stuff here as last time. Heat 4-2.

NBA Playoffs 2013, Round 2

I called six series correctly on the winner, and two of those right on the number of games. Onto Round 2. (Note I'm posting this during Grizz-Thunder game 1, but it didn't affect my call on that series).

Round 2
Eastern Conference
#1 Heat against #5 Bulls. Got to respect what the Bulls did against the Nets. However, I don't see them taking it any further than this. They can probably win one, but the Heat are just too dominant. Heat 4-1.
#2 Knicks against #3 Pacers. The Knicks showed all of the reasons they can be excellent, and all of the reasons they can be beaten, against the C's. The Pacers are an excellent, physical defensive team, but not a lot better than the Celts on offense. I'm always leery of picking a road closeout, so I'll say 7, but another of those where it's not really that close. Knicks 4-3.

Western Conference
#1 Thunder against #5 Grizzlies. The Thunder are still very dangerous, but I don't see them doing much without Westbrook; I may have been critical of him at times, but it's been in a "he can be even better" way, not that I didn't think he was really good. The Grizz are a team well-built for the playoffs, matching up well with OKC. Grizzlies 4-2.
#2 Spurs against #6 Warriors. I fully expect Curry to put up more gaudy scoring/shooting numbers this series and keep it interesting. I wouldn't be surprised at all if this an all-home winning series. Spurs 4-3.


Round 3
Eastern Conference
#1 Heat against #2 Knicks. I don't see how the Knicks win this without something seriously going wrong (LeBron injury or something like that). They'll shoot their way to a win or two, but that's likely it. Heat 4-2.

Western Conference
#2 Spurs against #5 Grizzlies. A very interesting series. Matchups could give it to the Grizz, but I'm thinking that Parker will go off and Duncan will limit the damage the Z-Bo/Gasol combo will do. Spurs 4-3.

NBA Finals
Heat with home-court against the Spurs. Kind of a rematch from 2007 (Spurs against LeBron). This time the Spurs won't be able to do much to stop him, and the Heat defense can contain Parker/Ginobili for the most part. Heat win it at home in 6. Heat 4-2.

What's that Upton Sinclair Quote?

This is remarkably stupid. Let's see, the federal government, due to sequestration, has some spending cuts. At the same time the Federal Reserve takes a somewhat more aggressive stance on fueling the economy. While this is happening the economy mildly accelerates. However, because the consensus had been for more acceleration than we saw, this proves that the Fed can't offset the impact of fiscal stimulus/austerity. Even leaving aside the problem of revisions (the data is still subject to significant updating up or down), it's a really high degree of confirmation bias in action.

Well-Meaning and Awkward

This would totally be me.

My 2012-13 NBA season predictions in review

See my prediction post here, and the actual results here. To sum it up, I nailed two (Utah and Sacramento), was off by 1 on four (Indiana, Detroit, Washington, Orlando), off by 2 or 3 on three each, and blew it on five (Philadelphia, Memphis, Golden State, LA Lakers, New Orleans). Average miss was 5.8 (ugh), but I got the over/under right on 21 of the 30, and, even better, got all 6 of my favorite calls right. Interestingly (at least to me), New Orleans was one of my worst calls, but was also one my favorites on the over/under.

NBA Playoffs 2013

The Eastern Conference champ is almost a foregone conclusion, though you never know. The Western Conference is going to be really interesting. Like before I'll give predictions for all rounds now, but only take my Round 1 picks at all seriously (and even those don't take very seriously).

Round 1
Eastern Conference
#1 Heat against #8 Bucks. The Bucks might get a monster game from Ellis to snag one win, but I'm going sweep. Heat 4-0.
#2 Knicks against #7 Celtics. I'm thinking the Celtics win one road game, so if they hold serve they win in 6. Unfortunately I expect the Knicks to also nab a roadie. Knicks 4-3.
#3 Pacers against #6 Hawks. The Pacers are scuffling a little, but are still better than the Hawks. I could see this being an all home wins series. Pacers 4-3.
#4 Nets against #5 Bulls. I'm assuming no Derek Rose, but that Joakim Noah is basically fine. The Nets are playing much better lately, to the point that they have an outside shot in Round 2. Nets 4-1.

Western Conference
#1 Thunder against #8 Rockets. Got to love Harden up against OKC, and I like how the Rockets have positioned themselves going forward, but the Thunder are quite a bit better. I figure the games in Houston are basically to toss-ups, the games in OKC will be blowouts. Thunder 4-1.
#2 Spurs against #7 Lakers. It'll be an 8-on-5 series (refs), at least to help the Lakers to nab a W or 2, hoping they don't mess up the rightful winner of the series. Spurs 4-3.
#3 Nuggets against #6 Warriors. Another all home teams series. Nuggets 4-3.
#4 Clippers against #5 Grizzlies. Vinny Del Negro in the playoffs and the Grizzlies' strength in the half-court make me go with the Grizz. Grizzlies 4-2.

Round 2
Eastern Conference
#1 Heat against #4 Nets. I do give the Nets a chance, given how they're playing lately and their strength inside, but it seems unlikely. Heat 4-1.
#2 Knicks against #3 Pacers. If the Knicks make it through the Celts, they'll be ready to take on the physical Pacers. Knicks 4-2.

Western Conference
#1 Thunder against #5 Grizzlies. The Thunder are too athletic for the Grizz, but it will be a good one. Thunder 4-3.
#2 Spurs against #3 Nuggets. With the injuries they've had, the Nuggets won't be able to compete with the Spurs, but would beat the Lakers if that's the matchup instead. Spurs 4-1.


Round 3
Eastern Conference

#1 Heat against #2 Knicks. Hot shooting and Chandler controlling the paint could be enough to topple the Heat, but again, unlikely. Heat 4-3, but not really that close.

Western Conference

#1 Thunder against #2 Spurs. A rematch of last year's conference finals. Probably a similar result. Thunder 4-3.

NBA Finals

Heat with home-court against the Thunder. Also a rematch from last year. The Heat are better, the Thunder are slightly worse. Heat 4-2.

Warning, Awfulness

So, apparently there's a trial of an abortion provider who killed numerous babies, post-birth, in some particularly gruesome ways (hat tip MM); read the link for details if you want them. How in the world has this not been front-page news? How is it possible that I just now learned about it? You don't need to be a pro-life zealot to see this as atrocious and extremely newsworthy, and anything less than a pro-choice zealot should see it that way; a zealot might take the trial itself as atrocious, but even that I doubt.

Insuring Confusion

Yglesias writes a bit about Cyprus, the Euro, and the possibility of imposing currency controls. Some of it is good, but something stuck out for me. "To truly have a common currency you need common deposit insurance." In a word, no. We've had deposit insurance long enough now that people generally take it for granted, however it is not at all a necessary part of a banking system. There is a problem when for some reason people think that there can't be default anywhere inside a union, but the solution to that isn't to insure everything but to make it clear that you aren't doing anything like that. Insisting that no Euro-area country can default was one of the big causes of Europe's problems the last few years; it ddn't get them into the situation, but has severely hurt the cause of exiting it.

Super Bowl Sunday, 2013

Last week went 1-1 on winners, 1-0-1 against the spread, bringing me to 4-5 picking winners, and 2-6-1 against the spread. Not good. Anyway...
Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers, 49ers favored by 3.5. I've looked at this matchup a few different ways, but mainly looking at how each team performed in road games this season, and in particular how they've done recently in those games. Both are great home teams, but the Ravens almost always have a close game on the road, and the 49ers are only a little better than that on the road. The Ravens D is about average on the road, and the 49ers offense is above average. The Ravens offense is also about average on the road, and the 49ers D is just below average. So I'm looking for a mildly high score, 49ers on top, but close. 49ers 27, Ravens 24.

NFL Playoffs 2012-13, Round 3

Ouch. 0-4 against the spread last weekend, 1-3 picking winners. Moving along....

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons, 49ers favored by 4. I'm torn on this one. On the one hand I think people are reading too much into the great game SF had last week, and not giving enough weight to the Falcons taking that weight off of their shoulders. On the other hand it looks like it could be a bad matchup for Atlanta, as they're really bad against QB runs. Not sure if the Crabtree situation affects much. I do expect a fairly high scoring game. 49ers 30, Falcons 27.

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots, Patriots favored by 9. The Patriots are better, and of course are home. However, the Ravens match up well and always play them tough. Plus no Gronk. It'll be close. Patriots 27, Ravens 24.

NFL Playoffs 2012-13, Round 2

First my overdue review of previous years:
2012: 7-4 picking winners, 5-6 against the spread
2011: 7-4, 6-5
2010: 5-6, 4-7
2009: 7-4, 6-4-1
2008: 6-5, 3-7-1
2007: 7-4, 6-5
2006: 5-6, 5-6
2005: 8-3, 7-4
2004: 5-6, 2-8-1
2003: 8-3, 4-7
Totals: 65-45 picking winners (59%), 48-59-3 against the spread (45%). So almost, but not quite, bad enough to use me as a negative indicator.

This year in Round 1 I went 2-1 picking winners and 1-2 against the spread. Onto Round 2.

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos, Broncos favored by 9. The Ravens looked decent last week, and Peyton has a history of both great and atrocious playoff games. As such I expect the Broncos to either win a blowout or to lose; no close calls. I guess I'll go with the former. Broncos 34, Ravens 23.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers, 49ers favored by 3. I'm going with the great QB going home for revenge over the young QB in his first playoff game. Packers 30, 49ers 27.

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons, Falcons favored by 1. I want to see the Falcons and Ryan get the monkey off of their backs, but I won't be picking them in a playoff game until I see it happen once. Seahawks 23, Falcons 20.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots, Patriots favored by 10. The Patriots should win, but that's too big a line, especially given the history of playoff rematches following a regular season blowout. Patriots 30, Texans 23.

NFL Playoffs 2012-13

Oops, neglected to put this up before the first game. Was leaning towards the Bengals to win and thus cover, but it's irrelevant now. Will review previous years shortly.

Vikings at Packers, Packers favored by 7.5. Peterson gives the Vikes a shot, but I don't see it happening. Green Bay is better, home, and out for revenge for the loss last week in Minny. Green Bay 31, Minnesota 20.

Colts at Ravens, Ravens favored by 7. The Ravens aren't playing great, but the Colts aren't nearly as good their record (lots of close wins, lots of bad/poor opponents). However, 7 points seems steep. Baltimore 24, Indianapolis 17 (call it 17.5 for gambling purposes).

Seahawks at Redskins, Seahawks favored by 3. Seattle is a great home team, and just a solid road team. I like the Redskins to win it outright. Washington 23, Seattle 21.