Implied Dissent

Saturday, April 16, 2016

NBA Playoffs 2016

I wish I had a contrarian take on this year’s playoffs, but I think it’ll be largely chalk. As usual, I’ll give my predictions for all 4 rounds now, but you should only take my current round predictions even half seriously.

Round 1
Eastern Conference
#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #8 Detroit Pistons. The Cavs are vulnerable, but I don’t see it against Detroit. Cavs 4-1.
#2 Toronto Raptors vs. #7 Indiana Pacers. Indy finished the season strong, but that was largely schedule-based. Love PG, but the Raps are better. Raptors 4-1.
#3 Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Hornets. I continue to doubt the Hornets a bit, though they are clearly much better than I gave them credit for (who knew Marvin Williams would become good?). Heat 4-3.
#4 Atlanta Hawks vs. Boston Celtics. Should be a great series. I’m a bit biased, but I have to admit the Hawks have largely owned the C’s. Hawks 4-3. Go Celts.
Western Conference
#1 Golden State Warriors vs. #8 Houston Rockets. Only question is if it’s a sweep. Warriors 4-0.
#2 San Antonio Spurs vs. #7 Memphis Grizzlies. Spurs 4-0.
#3 Oklahoma Thunder vs. #6 Dallas Mavericks. Carlisle is a much better coach, but I don’t see it. Thunder 4-1.
#4 Los Angeles Clippers vs. #5 Portland Trail Blazers. Will be interesting to see how Blake plays. Clips 4-3.

Round 2
Eastern Conference
#1 Cavaliers vs. #4 Hawks. Cavs 4-1.
#2 Raptors vs. #3 Heat. Raps 4-3.
Western Conference
#1 Warriors vs. #4 Clippers. Warriors 4-1.
#2 Spurs vs. #3 Thunder. Either 5 or 7….I’ll go with Spurs 4-1.

Round 3
Eastern Conference
#1 Cavs vs. #2 Raps. Cavs 4-3.
Western Conference
#1 Warriors vs. #2 Spurs. Been saying for a while whoever had home-court would win this. Warriors 4-3.

NBA Finals
Warriors with home-court against the Cavs. Warriors 4-1.

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Saturday, February 06, 2016

Superbowl 2016

Round 1
2-2 picking winners, 4-0 against the spread.

Round 2
4-0 picking winners, 3-1 against the spread.

Round 3
1-1 picking winners, 2-0 against the spread. So, overall I’m 7-3 and 9-1. I don’t understand it either, other than luck. However, I’m definitely sticking with my system for now (even with the weird score it’s spitting out). 

Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers, Panthers favored by 5.5. Great defense against an excellent offense usually wins. However, the other side is an excellent defense against a middling offense, which seems a bigger difference. Go with Cam. Panthers 25-19.

Saturday, January 23, 2016

NFL Playoffs 2014-15, Round 3

Round 1
2-2 picking winners, 4-0 against the spread.

Round 2
4-0 picking winners, 3-1 against the spread. Overall 6-2 and 7-1. I’m more shocked than you are.

Round 3
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos, Patriots favored by 3. I’m uncomfortable with how almost all pundits are writing off the Broncos. That’s a stout defense, so don’t write them off. Plus my simple and really stupid method of picking has been working, so I’m going to stick with it. Patriots 22-21.

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers, Panthers favored by 3. Weather is a wild card, but I think it favors the cats. Panthers 29-24.

Saturday, January 16, 2016

NFL Playoffs 2014-15, Round 2

Round 1
2-2 picking winners, 4-0 against the spread.

Round 2
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots, Patriots favored by 5. Even given the opponents, the Chiefs’ streak is impressive. However, if the Pats are at full strength they are clearly the better team. I'm guessing rust keeps it close, but Edelman and Vollmer have to be better than the guys they’ve been running out there. Patriots 27-21

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals, Cardinals favored by 7. The Packers are good, the Cards are excellent or maybe better than that. Cards 31-20.

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers, Panthers favored by 2.5. Most games between these teams are close wins by Seattle. However, Carolina is better than they’ve been in past years, and Seattle is significantly worse on the road. Panthers 28-21.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos, Broncos favored by 7.5. There is no telling what will happen in this game. Manning could put up a perfect game, or a goose egg. Roethlisberger could dominate, or could throw 3 pick-sixes. However, I don’t see a Denver blowout as likely, so take the points. Broncos 23-20.

Saturday, January 09, 2016

NFL Playoffs 2015-16, Round 1

First a review of previous years:
2015: 8-3 picking winners, 4-7 against the spread
2014: 6-5, 4-5-2
2013: 4-6, 3-6-1
2012: 7-4, 5-6
2011: 7-4, 6-5
2010: 5-6, 4-7
2009: 7-4, 6-4-1
2008: 6-5, 3-7-1
2007: 7-4, 6-5
2006: 5-6, 5-6
2005: 8-3, 7-4
2004: 5-6, 2-8-1
2003: 8-3, 4-7
Totals: 83-59 picking winners (58.5%), 59-77-6 against the spread (43.4%). So maybe bad enough to use me as a negative indicator. Putting really little thought into it this time.

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans, KC favored by 3. Chiefs 23-20 (call it 23.5-20 for spread purposes).
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh favored by 2.5. Bengals 24-20.
Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings, Seattle favored by 4. Seahawks 22-20.
Green Bay Packers at Washington Professional Football Team, Washington favored by 1.5. PFT 21-20.

Monday, October 26, 2015

NBA Predictions 2015-16

Take with the usual grain (or bucket) of salt.

Eastern Conference
Atlanta Hawks - 50-32 (50.5)
Cleveland Cavaliers - 53-29 (57.5)
Chicago Bulls - 51-31 (49.5)
Toronto Raptors - 43-39 (46.5)
Washington Wizards - 49-33 (45.5)
Milwaukee Bucks - 43-39 (44.5)
Boston Celtics - 48-34 (43.5)
Brooklyn Nets - 26-56 (28)
Indiana Pacers - 41-41 (40.5)
Miami Heat - 45-37 (47.5)
Charlotte Hornets - 24-58 (31.5)
Detroit Pistons - 33-49 (36)
Orlando Magic - 36-46 (34.5)
Philadelphia 76ers - 24-58 (20)
New York Knicks - 32-50 (28.5)

Western Conference
Golden State Warriors - 62-20 (59.5)
Houston Rockets - 55-27 (55.5)
Los Angeles Clippers - 54-28 (57)
Portland Trail Blazers - 29-53 (26.5)
Memphis Grizzlies - 48-34 (50.5)
San Antonio Spurs - 55-27 (57)
Dallas Mavericks - 41-41 (36.5)
New Orleans Pelicans - 47-35 (48)
Oklahoma City Thunder - 54-28 (57)
Phoenix Suns - 31-51 (36.5)
Utah Jazz - 39-43 (42.5)
Denver Nuggets - 30-52 (27)
Sacramento Kings - 36-46 (35)
Los Angeles Lakers - 27-55 (28.5)
Minnesota Timberwolves - 24-58 (27.5)

NBA Finals: Cavs over Warriors
Favorite Over: Celtics. Highly confident on this one; count it twice.
Favorite Unders: Cavaliers (resting guys), Hornets, Suns.

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Thursday, September 10, 2015

NFL predictions 2015

Will add the Vegas over/unders, but I'm pretty sure my only favorite call is Minnesota over. I know, only one is lame, but that's how it is. Standard disclaimers apply.

Super Bowl: Colts over Packers

(Vegas over/under in parenthesis, taken from

New England Patriots 10-6 (11)
Buffalo Bills 7-9 (8.5)
Miami Dolphins 9-7 (9)
New York Jets 6-10 (7.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers 10-6 (8.5)
Cincinnati Bengals 9-7 (8.5)
Baltimore Ravens 9-7 (9.5)
Cleveland Browns 6-10 (6.5)
Indianapolis Colts 11-5 (10.5)
Houston Texans 8-8 (8.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars 6-10 (5.5)
Tennessee Titans 6-10 (5.5)
Denver Broncos 10-6 (10.5)
Kansas City Chiefs 8-8 (8.5)
San Diego Chargers 9-7 (8.5)
Oakland Raiders 6-10 (6)
Dallas Cowboys 10-6 (9.5)
Philadelphia Eagles 10-6 (9.5)
New York Giants 9-7 (8)
Washington Redskins 6-10 (6.5)
Green Bay Packers 11-5 (11)
Detroit Lions 7-9 (8.5)
Minnesota Vikings 10-6 (7.5)
Chicago Bears 5-11 (6.5)
Carolina Panthers 7-9 (8)
New Orleans Saints 7-9 (8.5)
Atlanta Falcons 8-8 (8.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-10 (6)
Seattle Seahawks 10-6 (11)
Arizona Cardinals 7-9 (8.5)
San Francisco 49ers 6-10 (6.5)
St. Louis Rams 7-9 (8)

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Tuesday, June 02, 2015

NBA 2015 Finals

Got both conference finals winners right. So 12-2 picking series winners so far. It's been kind of a chalky year. Anyway....

NBA Finals
Golden State Warriors with home-court against the Cleveland Cavaliers. It was impressive how the Cavs managed to dominate the Hawks even with all their injury problems. And I think the team 3 thru 12 is solid. Not great, but solid. If Irving was 100%, it would be interesting. If Love was playing, it'd be a tossup. As is, I'm split on whether to go 5 or 6. I feel like Bron can defend his hometurf, but also thinking that the Cavs just won't have enough wrinkles to their offense when going up against the best defense in the league to win twice, let alone 4 times. I'm hoping for a good series, but Warriors 75-80% likely to win it. Warriors 4-1.

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Tuesday, May 19, 2015

NBA Playoffs 2015, Round 3

Posting this slightly late, but on my honor I knew what I wanted to say before the first game started, and haven't changed it at all.
In round 2 got all series winners correct.

Round 3
Eastern Conference
#1 Hawks against #2 Cavaliers. Would not be shocked if the deeper team pulled it off, especially with Irving looking gimpy. I'll stick with the best player on the planet, though. Cavaliers 4-2.

Western Conference
#1 Warriors against #2 Rockets. I give Houston a slim chance. The Warriors had their scare, and now are firing on all cylinders. The high volume of 3's on both sides increases the variance, and maybe Dwight can dominate on D, but I doubt it. Warriors 4-1.

NBA Finals
Warriors with home-court against the Cavaliers. Easy call. Too bad, would have been interesting with both teams healthy. Warriors 4-1.

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Sunday, May 03, 2015

NBA Playoffs 2015, Round 2

A mostly lackluster round 1, but Clips-Spurs was just as good as it was supposed to be. Disappointing to see the Love injury, which opens the door wider to Bulls and Hawks, but still see Cavs making the Finals. Being blown out, but making them. Got 6 series winners right, 2 in right number of games. We'll just pretend Mavs series didn't happen....
Onto Round 2.

Round 2
Eastern Conference
#1 Hawks against #5 Wizards. Playing Pierce at the 4 has helped the Wiz quite a bit, and the Hawks didn't look great against Brooklyn. However, it seems like Hawks were getting together by end of the series, and did win all of their home games. Not quite convinced by Wizards, would need to see it again. Hawks 4-3.
#2 Cavaliers against #3 Bulls. Would not be shocked if the Bulls' size enables them to win this series. However, the Bulls are inconsistent, and the Cavs still seem a little better. Cavs 4-3.

Western Conference
#1 Warriors against #5 Grizzlies. I give the Griz a small chance, due to their way of matching up with people being so different. However, most likely it will be a rout. Warriors 4-1.
#2 Rockets against #3 Clippers. Should be a great series. Hopefully Chris Paul's injury heals quickly. Given how it looks now, though, Rockets 4-2.

Round 3
Eastern Conference
#1 Hawk against #2 Cavaliers. Sticking with the LeBrons. Cavs 4-2.

Western Conference
#1 Warriors against #2 Rockets. If Howard keeps it up, this could get very interesting...but probably won't. Warriors 4-1.

NBA Finals
Warriors with home-court against the Cavaliers. Go with the team having the historically great year. Warriors 4-1.

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Saturday, April 18, 2015

NBA Playoffs 2015

It looks a lot like the Cavs and Warriors are on a collision course, but there are a few “upstarts” that could derail that. Like before I'll give predictions for all rounds now, but only take my Round 1 picks at all seriously (and even those don't take very seriously). Also like before, I don't think any of my picks are particularly surprising, but maybe I'm wrong (and hopefully only on that dimension).

Round 1
Eastern Conference
#1 Hawks against #8 Brooklyn Nets. An upset is possible, especially with the Sefolosha situation and Millsap maybe not himself. Then again, the Nets aren’t good, and I doubt Millsap will take all that long to be good again. Hawks 4-2.
#2 Cavaliers against #7 Celtics. The Celtics are better than people think. Thomas and Zeller are really good, Crowder and Smart of pretty good, and the next 4 guys are solid. Unfortunately that’s not enough to beat the LeBrons. The games in Boston are tossups, the games in Cleveland will be blowouts. Cavaliers 4-1.
#3 Bulls against #6 Bucks. Things are shaping up for the Bulls, finally. They still need Noah to take seriously as a contender (he’s supposed to play, we’ll see). I like the Bucks, but don’t see them doing much this year. Bulls 4-1.
#4 Raptors against #5 Wizards. Both teams started the season very well, both slowed a lot, and both perked up a bit at the end. I just have a feeling the Wizards with Beal back are better. Wizards 4-2.
Western Conference
#1 Warriors against #8 Pelicans. Got to love Anthony Davis, top 10 player, best young big man today, could well be MVP next year. However, Curry is either #1 or #2 this year, and the rest of his team is much better. Warriors 4-1.
#2 Rockets against #7 Mavericks. The talent is close enough that I’m going with the superior coaching of Carlisle enabling the mini-upset. Mavericks 4-2.
#3 Clippers against #6 Spurs. These are the 2 teams most likely to take down the Warriors in the West. It’s too bad they’re playing in round 1, but it should be an excellent series. Go with the champs. Spurs 4-2.
#4 Trail Blazers against #5 Grizzlies (Grizz with home-court). A healthy Portland would be interesting. Oh well. Grizzlies 4-1.

Round 2
Eastern Conference
#1 Hawks against #5 Wizards. Hawks 4-1.
#2 Cavaliers against #3 Bulls. Health could be a big issue for this series. For now, Cavs 4-1.

Western Conference
#1 Warriors against #5 Grizzlies. A small chance of an upset due to the very different styles, but unlikely. Warriors 4-1.
#6 Spurs against #7 Mavericks. These teams always matchup well. Stick with the Spurs, but it will be a basketball purists dream series. Spurs 4-3.

Round 3
Eastern Conference
#1 Hawks against #2 Cavaliers. Cavs 4-2.

Western Conference
#1 Warriors against #6 Spurs. An awesome series. Warriors 4-3.

NBA Finals
Warriors with home-court against the Cavaliers. Warriors 4-2.

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Thursday, April 16, 2015

2014-15 NBA season predictions in review

I did much better this year. See my predictions here, and actual standings here. To sum up, I went 19-11 across all teams, and 7-1 on my top picks. To be fair, I called half of them as 1/2 picks, so I really went 5-1 on my top picks. Still, pretty, pretty good. This brings my 3-year record to 51-39 overall, and my top picks record to 12-5. Woo!
On the less important prediction vs. actual win total question, I had 2 exactly right (Washington and San Antonio), and on 7 was off by 1 or 2 (Brooklyn, Detroit, Philadelphia, LA Clippers, Portland, Dallas, and Sacramento). I also was way off on both top seeds (17 for both Golden State and Atlanta), and the two worst teams (16 off for Minnesota, and a whopping 24 for the Knicks). Interesting. The average error was 6.8. I'll take it.

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